基本介紹
- 中文名:熱帶氣旋形成警報
- 外文名:Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
- 簡稱:TCFA
警報分段
第一部分
第二部分
第三部分
警報例子
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 031021Z JUL 06//
RMKS
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4N 110.2E TO 19.7N 109.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 030900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.7N 110.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3N
110.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.1E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AND THERE IS NOWNORTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 041030Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/熱帶氣旋形成警報 031021Z JUL 06//
RMKS
1. 在未來12-24小時於16.4N 110.2E至19.7N 109.2E這100海里範圍之內
是有機會形成一個熱帶氣旋。根據目前數據,尚未達到發出熱帶氣旋編號之時
。在這範圍內風力估計有約20-25節每小時。在030900Z的METSAT圖像顯示
一個旋轉中心大約位於16.7N 110.1E。這個系統以每小時7節的時速向西北
偏北移動。
2. 備註:上一次定位於16.3N 110.2E的對流現在現在定位於16.7N 110.1E
,大約是向中國海南島的南方130海里處。近期的紅外線圖像顯示對流已經繼續
移動至系統的北方。上層之分析顯示該處有垂直風切變。最高持續風速目前估
算於20-25節之間。最低海氣壓估計是1003 MB。這個系統在未來24小時發展為
熱帶氣旋的機率被評定為良好。
3. 這個警報將會於041030Z(04日晚上18時30分)重新發布、提升至警告或取消。//