跨越發展的陷阱：推進經濟中高速增長的突破改革方案

內容簡介

目前，中國經濟增速明顯放緩，下行危機不斷增大。如何跨越這發展的陷阱？ “新常態”下，如何通過深化改革，推進經濟實現中高速增長？本書剖析了中國經濟成長速度下行的三方面內在原因，解讀了經濟下行的各種風險，分析了扭轉風險所面對的優勢，並結合對中國經濟成長的歷史回顧，對中國經濟發展大勢做出預判，提出中國實體經濟降成本政策及其配套改寒驗灑章革方案，闡述了實現經濟成長的突破性和基礎動能性體制改革、改革體制與盤活存量、開放和拓展增長領域的體制改革、對外經濟開放改革等方案性措施，是各級經濟政策的設計者、改革方案的制定者以及所有關注中國經濟發展讀者的力作。

圖書目錄

1扭轉經濟增速下行的框架性概述/ 00

11實體經濟的休養生息/ 00

111降低企業成本必須減稅降費/ 00

112推進降低成本的配套性體制改革/ 00

12產權改革為重，啟動J型增長/ 00

13三方面基礎性的體制改革/ 00

14盤活存量要素和資源的體制改革/ 0

141盤活城鄉間要素和資源存量的體制改革/ 0

142盤活國有經濟要素和資源存量的體制改革/ 0

143盤活創新要素和資源存量的體制改革/ 0

15拓寬增長來源領域的開放性體制希循妹改革/ 0

151一些被管制領域的體制改革/ 0

152拓展新舉牛頸增長領域的體制改革/ 0

153放開社會事業領域的體制改革/ 0

16圍繞經濟中高速增長布局對外經濟開放/ 0

161減少對外漏損與出口替代戰略/ 0

162“一帶一路”思路與戰略的補充與完善/ 02經濟成長速度下行的三方面內在原因/ 0

21人口收縮老化與經濟格局變化/ 0

211“人口坑”對經濟成長的20年影響定律/ 0

212增長乏力：不能市民化的城市化/ 0

213經濟發展的格局發生了重大的轉折/ 0

22企業高成本重創實體經濟/ 0

221政府銀行國企GDP分配比例的上升/ 0

222城鄉居民和民營實體經濟所分配的GDP/ 0

223居民消費能力趨弱/ 0

224擠壓利潤和高債務迫使投資增速下行/ 0

225經濟成長下行的GDP擠壓力流程/ 0

23國民經濟流量的對外漏損/ 0

231服務貿易逆差對經濟成長的影響/ 0

232企業家資金轉移的增長推動力漏損/ 0

3經濟增速下行風險及其扭轉的優勢/ 0

31未來中國發展面臨的一些風險/ 0

311經濟增速長期下行和低位徘徊/ 0

312改革提振速度慢於經濟增速下行的惡化/ 0

313金融和經濟危機可能由高槓桿率引求連發/ 0

314稅費供養失衡與溫水煮青蛙的可能性全糠判籃/ 0

315養老金缺口與民粹化導致經濟社會“希臘化”/ 0

32中美印之間未來基於人口的競爭/ 0

321中美印人口結構對比/ 0

322中美印未來人口數量和經濟走勢預測/ 0

323中美印未來GDP總量和均值預測/ 0

33中國經濟增速的優勢與潛力/

331睿智勤勞儲蓄創業的中華民族/

332經濟增速有堅實的基礎/

333大國規模經濟優勢/

4經濟成長的歷史回顧與大勢預判/

41改革開放以來三次S型經濟成長/

411改革開啟經濟起飛的首個S型增長階段/

412改革開放深化推進第二個S型增長階連棗射段/

413加入WTO促改革形成第三輪S型增長/

42溫故和判斷及把握關係/

421三次經濟增速上行和下行的經驗和啟示/

422五種疊加壓力可能造成經濟增速長期下行的格局/

423診斷和治療經濟增速下行的大體思路/

5實體經濟降成本政策及其配套改革/

51實施綜合降低成本的經濟政策/

511擴張性政策對人口原因性衰退調節的失效/

512經濟高成本需要供給學派政策調降/

513供給經濟政策需要凱恩斯工具相配合/

52降成本必須推進的體制改革/

521金融體制方面的改革/

522運輸、能源和土地降成本的體制改革/

523降低企業成本與稅費供養體制改革/

6經濟成長：突破性和基礎動能性體制改革/

61突破性改革啟動新一輪J型增長/

62長遠期經濟成長基礎動能性體制改革/

621創業就業體制改革/

622轉變觀念和推進生育體制改革/

7經濟成長：改革體制與盤活存量/

71城鄉間要素和資源流動的體制改革/

711加遙連試速市民化的體制改革/

712農村土地使用財產權制度的改革/

72國企改革與促進經濟成長/

721低效率國有經濟與改革的緊迫性/

722體製成本和集中風險及國有領域選擇/

723切實推進國有企業的體制改革/

73盤活創新領域要素和資源的改革/

731科技創新要素和資源利用的問題/

732盤活科技創新存量的體制改革/

8開放和拓展經濟成長領域的體制改革/

81服務業體制改革及領域的開放/

811服務業發展存在的體制問題/

812服務業體制的分類改革和開放/

82社會事業領域向民間放開/

821目前發展民間社會組織的問題/

822拓寬社會事業領域的幾個重大關係/

823發展和壯大民間社會組織層次/

83拓展增長的空間資源環境等新領域/

831通用航空領域體制改革和開放/

832土地淡水造林生態領域的開放/

833將環境保護和治理轉變為創造GDP的產業/

834推進PPP體制改革吸引民間投資/

9促進經濟成長與對外經濟開放/

91國內外形勢變化與對外開放的轉折/

911基於國內經濟形勢變化的對外開放調整/

912國際形勢變化與中國開放戰略的調整/

92中國經濟開放的優勢和面臨的挑戰/

921對外經濟開放的優勢不容置疑/

922中國“走出去”面臨的風險和自身的不足/

923特朗普時代：中國的不確定性、風險和機遇/

93未來對外開放戰略的思路和組合/

931構建對外經濟開放宏微觀調節機制/

932產業升級與出口替代/

933投資、資金和進出口流入與流出平衡/

934產能轉移、平衡推進和國內關聯/

935“走出去”的方式和體制的轉型/

936特朗普時代：中國堅持經濟全球化/

937國內能源自主與淡水平衡/

後記/

Chapter 1The Framework Overview of Reversing The Slowdown of Economic Growth/ 00

11Recuperation of the Real Economy/ 00

111Tax-cut and Fee Reduction Is Necessary for Lowering Enterprises Cost/ 00

112The Supporting Ttructural Rreform of Promoting Cost Reduction/ 00

12Property Reform for Rebooting the J-curve Growth/ 00

13Basic Institutional Reform in Three Dimensions/ 00

14Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of Elements and Resources/ 0

141Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks between Urban and Rural Regions/ 0

142Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of State-owned Economic Elements and Resources/ 0

143Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of Innovational Elements and Resources/ 0

15Field Opening Institutional Reforms for Broadening the Sources of Growth/ 0

151Institutional Reforms for Opening up A Few Restrained Fields/ 0

152Institutional Reforms for Broadening New Ares for Growth/ 0

153Institutional Reforms for Deregulation in Fields of Social Undertaking/ 0

16Layout of Opening Strategy surrounding Medium High-Speed Growth/ 0

161Strategy for Reducing Leakage and Export Substitution/ 0

162Thoughts, Complements and Perfections about “the Belt and Road Initiatives”/ 0

Contents

Chapter 2Three Underlying Reasons of the Slowing Down Economic Growth Rate/ 0

21Population Aging and Changes of Economic Pattern/ 0

211Theorem of 20-year Delay Effect of Population Pit over Economic Growth / 0

212Sluggish Growth: Urbanization Excluding Citizenization/ 0

213Major Transition in Layout of Economic Development/ 0

22High Costs on Enterprises Hit the Real Economy/ 0

221Increasing Share of GDP by Government, Banks and State-owned Enterprises/ 0

222Share of GDP Goes to Urban & Rural Citizens and Private Real Economy/ 0

223Weakening Household Consumption Capacity/ 0

224Shrinking Profit and High Debt that Causing Investment Slowdown/ 0

225GDPs Crowding out Process of Economic Downturn/ 0

23Outward Leakage of National Economic Flow/ 0

231Service Trade Deficit Impacting Economic Growth/ 0

232Growing Capital Outward Transfer by Entrepreneurs Causing Economic Impetus Leakage/ 0

Chapter 3Risks of Economic Slowdown and the Advantages for Reversion/ 0

31Risks for China's Development in Future/ 0

311Long-term Economic Downturn and Fluctuation at Low Level/ 0

312Inspiration from Reform Slower than Economic Deterioration/ 0

313Financial and Economic Crises Caused by High Leverage/ 0

314Imbalance Support of Taxes & Fees and Possibilities of “Boiling Frog” Effect/ 0

315Pension Deficit and Populist May Lead to Situation Similar as “Greeces Disease”/ 0

32Competitions Samong China, the United States and India Based on Population in Future/ 0

321Population Structure Comparison among China, America and India/ 0

322Population Predictions and Economic Trends of China, America and India/ 0

323Total GDP and Average Amount Prediction of China, America and India/ 0

33Advantages and Potential of China's Economic Growth/ 0

331Wise, Hardworking Chinese Nation with Savings and Entrepreneurship/ 0

332Solid Foundation of Economic Growth/

333Advantage of Scale Economy for A Great Power/

Chapter 4Review of Economic Growth and Prediction on Its Trends/

41Three Periods of Scurve Economic Growth since the Reform and Openingup in China/

411The First Stage of Scurve Growth Initiated by Reform/

412Deepening Reform and Openingup Which Advanced the Second Scurve Growth/

413Entry into WTO Promoteed Both Reform and the Third Stage of S-curve Growth/

42Reviews, Appraises and Relationship Analyses/

421Experience and Enlightenment of Three Cycles of Economic Upward and Downward/

422Superposition of Five Trends Which May Cause Long-term Economic Downturn/

423General Ideas of Diagnoses and Treatment for Economic Downturn/

Chapter 5Cost Reduction Policies and Supporting Reforms for Real Economy/

51To Implement Comprehensive Economic Policies for Cost Reduction/

511Ineffective Expansive Policies on Causal Decline of Population/

512High Cost Needs to Be Lowered from Supply-side/

513Supply-side Policies Embracing Keynesian Policies/

52Several Indispensable Structural Reforms for Promoting Cost Reduction/

521Reforms on Financial System/

522Structural Reforms on Lowering Costs in Transportation, Energy and Land/

523Structural Reforms on Lowering Costs for Enterprises and Taxes & Fees/ Chapter 6Economic Growth: Structural Reforms as Breakthroughs and Basic Momentums/

61Initiating New Round of “J” Shaped Growth by Achieving Breakthroughs in Reform/

62Establishing Basic Momentums for Long-term Growth/

621Structural Reform on Entrepreneurship and Employment System/

622Idea Changing and Advancing Structural Reform on Birth Control/

Chapter 7Economic Growth: Structural Reforms and Liquidizing Remnant Assets/

71Structural Reforms for Mobility of Factors and Resources Between Urban and Rural Areas/

711Speed-up Structural Reforms on Citizenizaition/

712Reforms on Land Property of Usage in Rural Areas/

72Reforming State-owned Enterprises and Promoting Economic Growth/

721Low Efficiency of State-owned Enterprises and Urgency for Reforms/

722Institutional Costs, Risks of Concentration and Choices of State-owned Domains/

723Firmly Promote Structural Reforms on State-owned Enterprises/

73Reforms for Liquidizing Factors and Resources in Innovative Domains/

731Problems of Liquidizing Technology Innovation Stock and Resources/

732Structural Reforms on Liquidizing Technology Innovation Stock/

Chapter 8Reforms for Opening up and Expanding the Fields of Growth/

81Reforms and Opening of Service Industry/

811Institutional Problems about Service Industry Development/

812Reforms on Service Industry System and Its Opening/

82Opening Social Undertaking Toward Private Capital/

821Problems of Social Associations Development at the Moment/

822Broadening the Major Relations of Social Undertaking/

823Developing and Expanding Hierarchies of Non-Official Social Undertaking/

83Expanding New Fields: Space, Resources and Environment/

831Structural Reform and Opening of General Aviation/

832Opening the Fields of Environment Such as Fresh Water and Afforestation/

833Turn Environment Protection into Industries Producing GDP/

834To Attract Private Investment by Advancing Structural Reforms of PPP /

Chapter 9Promoting Economic Growth and Openingup/

91Changes in the Domestic and International Situation and Transition of Chinas Openingup/

911Adjustment of Opening-up Based on Domestic Economic Situations/

912International Situation and Adjustment of Chinas Opening Strategy/

92Advantages and Challenges for Chinas Economic Opening/

921Unquestionable Advantages of Opening-up/

922Risks and Shortcomings of Chinas “Going Abroad”/

923Trumps Age: Uncertainties, Risks and Opportunities/

93Thoughts and Combinations of Opening-up Strategy in Future/

931Constructing Macro and Micro Regulatory Mechanism of Opening-up/

932Industrial Upgrading and Export Substitution/

933Investment, Capital, Balancing the Inflows & Outflows and Stabilizing Economic Growth/

934Industrial Capacity Shifting, Balanced Progress and Domestic Interrelations/

935Patterns of “Going Abroad” and Institutional Transition/

936Trumps Age:Chinas Insisting on Economic Globalization/

937Domestic Energy Independence and Balanced Fresh Water/

Postscript/

作者簡介

周天勇，經濟學博士，教授，中共中央黨校國際戰略研究所副所長，中共中央黨校校委研究室副主任，北京科技大學博士生導師。社會兼職有：中國城市發展研究會副理事長兼城市研究所所長，國家行政學院、北京科技大學、東北財政大學、中國社會科學院研究生院等教授，國家發改委價格諮詢專家。研究領域為社會主義經濟理論、巨觀經濟、經濟發展和增長、勞動經濟、中小企業、金融風險、城市化、國企改革、農業經濟等。在上海三聯出版社、經濟科學出版社和中共中央黨校出版社出版有《勞動與經濟成長》、《效率與供給經濟學》、《金融風險與資本社會化》、《中國經濟命運與前景的深層次思考》、《新發展經濟學》、《中國政治體制改革》、《國有企業改革攻堅》、《現代國有資產管理體系模式》、《走出決策的經濟誤區》、《走出發展的體制障礙》、《中國：經濟運行與結構轉換》和研究生用《高級發展經濟學》等專著和教材。近年來就國家整體負債、公平與效率、政府各部門收費、財政體制、官民供養比、水電開發、中國增長的危機等方面發表的文章，引起了各方面的高度關注。

跨越發展的陷阱：推進經濟中高速增長的突破改革方案

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圖書目錄

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