《繁榮的輪迴——人口變動與經濟成長的一個邏輯解釋》是2017年3月1日中國財富出版社出版的圖書，作者是周天勇、王元地。
基本介紹
- 中文名：繁榮的輪迴——人口變動與經濟成長的一個邏輯解釋
- 作者：周天勇、王元地
- 出版社：中國財富出版社
- ISBN：9787504764355
內容簡介,圖書目錄,
內容簡介
自2008年以來，中國經濟中的“人口紅利”消耗殆盡，每年8%以上增速的“中國奇蹟”風光不再。未來15-20年，中國經濟能否保持中高速增長？通過調整人口政策，能給經濟成長帶來哪些新動力？本書以獨特的視角，從研究中國經濟發展的“人口因素”入手，借鑑世界各國經驗教訓，揭示了中國經濟下行的深層次原因，提出了中國人口政策方面的“生育管制”和“流動管制”帶來的各種不利經濟成長的後果，為各級政府制定促進經濟成長的經濟政策與改革方案，提供了一條嶄新的思路。
圖書目錄
第1部分中國經濟學界的未解之謎
1問題的起因/00
1.1中國奇蹟：經濟高速增長30年/00
1.1.1經濟實力快速增長/00
1.1.2從農業經濟社會向現代工業社會的轉型/00
1.1.3對外貿易的“引進來”和“走出去”/00
1.1.4人民生活從溫飽到小康/0
1.2中國經濟高速增長的成因/0
1.2.1高生育率積蓄了大規模的剩餘勞動力/0
1.2.2剩餘勞動力優勢成功嵌入全球產業鏈/0
1.2.3經濟主力人口的創業創新動力/0
1.32008年經濟增速開始下行/0
1.3.1工業生產轉入了全面過剩/0
1.3.2消費、投資增速下行和突然放緩/0
1.3.3傳統的出口優勢逐步趨弱並已消失殆盡/0
2經濟下行的“兩家爭鳴”與質疑/0
2.1經濟本不應進入中速增長階段/0
2.1.1“中速增長常態論”的邏輯推理和政策主張/0
2.1.2對“中速增長常態論”的商榷/0
2.2經濟下行不是外因所致/0
2.2.1“增速下行外因論”的邏輯推理和政策主張/0
2.2.2對“增速下行外因論”的商榷/0
第2部分學術爭論與歷史演變
3人口與發展：理論述評與事實/0
3.1人口與經濟關係理論的回顧與評述/0
3.1.1適度人口論與人口控制主張/0
3.1.2《增長的極限》與人口資源悲觀論/0
3.1.3市場機制調控家庭生育決策的基本過程/0
3.1.4人口流動與經濟成長關係的研究述評/0
3.2人口增長與工業化發展/0
3.2.1人口增長是工業化的必要條件/0
3.2.2人口增長方式轉型也是工業化的產物/0
3.3人口流動、城市化及工業化發展/0
3.3.1人口流動加速城市化的進程/0
3.3.2城市化與工業化發展的互動/0
3.4人口、工業化與生態環境的動態協調發展/0
3.4.1人口增長與資源的協調發展/0
3.4.2人口、工業化與環境的協調發展/0
3.4.3人口、工業化與生態環境的動態發展/0
4生育權與遷移權/0
4.1生育權與遷移權的界定/0
4.1.1生育權在個人和國家間的歸屬之爭/0
4.1.2遷移權在個人與國家間不同的安排/0
4.2 生育權的經濟學分析/
4.2.1生育權的經濟學解釋/
4.2.2生育權行使的經濟學探討/
4.3 遷移權的經濟學分析/
4.3.1遷移權的經濟學解釋/
4.3.2遷移權行使的經濟學探討/
5 世界經驗：基於不同生育權和遷移權的配置/
5.1 基於不同生育權配置的國際經驗/
5.1.1美國不干預的生育及經濟發展/
5.1.2日本指導性計畫生育與經濟的先富後低/
5.1.3韓國指導性計畫生育歷程/
5.1.4中國台灣地區的指導性計畫生育/
5.1.5計畫生育政策在印度的流產 /
5.1.6不同生育權配置的國際經驗總結/
5.2 基於不同遷移權配置的國際經驗/
5.2.1美國的人口遷移自由/
5.2.2日本的人口遷移和住民登記/
5.2.3法國的遷移自由和流動人口管理/
5.2.4俄羅斯人口遷移及其低流動性/
5.2.5印度的人口遷移與貧民窟的形成/
5.2.6不同遷移權配置的國際經驗總結/
第3部分中國人口生育管制的經濟後果
6 “人口坑”與經濟成長的陷阱/
6.1 “人口坑”深淺與經濟高增長時間的長短/
6.1.1工業化階段的“人口坑”與經濟成長速度/
6.1.2中國“人口坑”與經濟成長速度放慢/
6.2 人口增長變動對經濟成長速度的影響/
6.2.1即期影響：人口增長對經濟成長的影響/
6.2.2長期影響：人口變動的20年延期影響定理/
7 人口結構失衡和老齡化的經濟後果/
7.1 人口結構與經濟排浪式變動及增長波動/
7.1.1人口變動與消費、投資和出口變動的數理關係/
7.1.2人口變動引致國民經濟排浪式衰退/
7.2 未來經濟長期承受的下行和老齡化壓力/
7.2.1國民經濟未來長期面臨的下行壓力/
7.2.2未來老齡化加劇的諸多難題/
第4部分中國人口流動管制的經濟後果
8 人口進入城市和退出農村的障礙和問題/
8.1 流動人口市民化的進入障礙/
8.1.1中國戶籍管理制度變遷與人口流動/
8.1.2社會保障與公共服務的不公平/
8.2進城農民工人口的農村財產退出障礙/
8.2.1農民理性經濟人與退出資產障礙和機會成本/
8.2.2出租退出困境與其他退出方式比較/
8.2.3農地制度複雜性與建設徵用為國有之弊/
9 城市化流程的扭曲和消費塌陷/
9.1 “青出老回”與漂泊於城市/
9.1.1人口城鄉鐘擺式和不同地頻繁流動/
9.1.2人口從農村到城市的“青出老回”/
9.1.3不返鄉的農民工人口在城市中漂泊/
9.1.4大多數國家能夠市民化的城市化/
9.2城市消費抑制和農村消費塌陷/
9.2.1流動人口干預制度下的城市消費抑制/
9.2.2“青出老回”流程與農村消費塌陷/
結束語/
參考文獻/
PART ONEThe Unsolved Mystery in China’s Economic Community
1Origin of the Problem/ 00
1.1Chinese Miracle: The 30 Years of High Economic Growth Rate/ 00
1.1.1Rapid Growth of Economic Strength/ 00
1.1.2Transition from Agricultural Economy to Modern
Industrial Economy/ 00
1.1.3“Bringing In” and “Going Out” of International Trade/ 00
1.1.4From Subsistence to Moderate Prosperity/ 0
1.2The Reasons of China’s High Economic Growth/ 0
1.2.1High Fertility Rate Saving Huge Surplus Labor/ 0
1.2.2Successfully Integrating Surplus Labor Advantage into
Global Industrial Chain/ 0
1.2.3Entrepreneurship and Innovation by Population as Major
Economic Force/ 0
1.3The Slowdown of Economic Growth Since 2008/ 0
1.3.1Industrial Product Turning into Overall Surplus/ 0
1.3.2Downturn and an Abrupt Slowdown of
Consumption and Investment/ 0
1.3.3Traditional Export Advantage Exhausting Gradually/ 0
2Two Theories of Economic Downturn and Doubts/ 0
2.1The Economy Should Not Enter Intermediate Speed of Growth/ 0
2.1.1The Logic and Policy View of “Medium
Growth as Normal”/ 0
2.1.2Discussion over “Medium Growth as Normal”/ 0
2.2Economic Downturn Is Not Caused by External Factors/ 0
2.2.1The Logic and Policy View of “External Causes of
Economic Downturn”/ 0
2.2.2Discussion over “External Causes of
Economic Downturn”/ 0
Contents
PART TWOAcademic Debate and Historical Evolution
3Population and Development: Theoretical Review and Facts/ 0
3.1The Review and Discussion of the Relationship Theory of
Population and Economy/ 0
3.1.1Moderate Population Theory and Its View of Birth Control/ 0
3.1.2“The Limits to Growth” and Pessimistic View of Population
and Resources/ 0
3.1.3Basic Process of Family Planning under Market Mechanism/ 0
3.1.4Reviews of Literature on Population Mobility
and Economic Growth/ 0
3.2Population Growth and Industrial Development/ 0
3.2.1Population Growth as Necessity of Industrialization/ 0
3.2.2Transition of Population Growth as Outcome
of Industrialization/ 0
3.3Population Flow, Urbanization and Industrial Development/ 0
3.3.1Population Mobility Speeding up Urbanization Process/ 0
3.3.2Interactions between Urbanization and Industrialization/ 0
3.4The Dynamic and Coordinated Development of Population,
Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 0
3.4.1Harmonious Development between Population
Growth and Resources/ 0
3.4.2Harmonious Development among Population Growth,
Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 0
3.4.3Dynamic Development among Population Growth,
Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 0
4Reproductive Right and Migration Right/ 0
4.1The Definition of Reproductive Right and Migration Right/ 0
4.1.1Dispute over ownership of Reproductive Right between Family
and Government/ 0
4.1.2Different Arrangement of Migration Right between Family
and Government/ 0
4.2The Economic Analysis of Birth Rate/
4.2.1Economic Explanation of Reproductive Right/
4.2.2Economic Discussion over Exercise of Reproductive Right/
4.3The Economic Analysis of Migration Right/
4.3.1Economic Explanation of Migration Right/
4.3.2Economic Discussion over Exercise of Migration Right/
5Experience in the World: The Distribution Based on Different
Reproductive Right and Migration Right/
5.1The International Experience Based on Different Reproductive Right/
5.1.1Nonintervention Experience of the United States/
5.1.2Instructive Birth Control in Japan and Its
Economic Up and Down/
5.1.3History of Instructive Birth Control in Korea/
5.1.4Instructive Birth Control in Taiwan/
5.1.5Miscarriage of Birth Control in India/
5.1.6International Experience of Different Arrangement of
Reproductive Right/
5.2The International Experience Based on Different Migration Right/
5.2.1Free Migration of Population in the United States/
5.2.2Reproductive Right and Residential Registration in Japan/
5.2.3Free Migration of Population and Floating Population
Management in France/
5.2.4Migration of Population and Low Mobility in Russia/
5.2.5Migration of Population and Formation of
Slum Problem in India/
5.2.6International Experience of Different Arrangement of Migration
of Population/
PART THREEThe Economic Consequence of China’s Population
Planning System
6“Population Pit” and the Trap of Economic Growth/
6.1The Depth of “Population Pit” and The Time Length of High
Economic Growth/
6.1.1“Population Pit” at Industrialization Stage
and Economic Growth/
6.1.2“Population Pit” and Economic Slowdown in China/
6.2The Influence of the Change of Population Growth on Economic
Growth Rate/
6.2.1Immediate Influence: Population Growth over
Economic Growth/
6.2.2Long-term Influence: Theory of 20-year Delay Effect of
Population Growth/
7The Economic Consequence of Unbalanced and Aging
Population Structure/
7.1Population Structure, Huge Economic Change and the Fluctuation
of Increase/
7.1.1Arithmetical Relationship between Population Structure and
Consumption, Investment and Export Fluctuation/
7.1.2Population Change Leads to National Economic
Downturn as Waves/
7.2The Downward and Aging Pressure on Economy in the Future/
7.2.1Long-term Economic Downward Pressure of
National Economy/
7.2.2Numerous Difficulties from Aggravating Population Aging/
。。。
