陶福祿，43歲，博士，現任中國科學院地理科學與資源研究所研究員，博士生導師。
基本介紹
- 中文名：陶福祿
- 國籍：中國
- 民族：漢
- 職業：博士
人物經歷,研究領域和研究方向,近期科研進展,代表論著,
人物經歷
2008年入選中國科學院“引進國外傑出人才”（“百人計畫”）回國，回國前在日本農業環境技術研究所和日本筑波大學任特別研究員。
1999年於中國科學院生態環境研究中心獲生態學專業博士學位。
2001年獲國際“START”青年科學家獎。已在國內外重要學術期刊發表論文100多篇，其中國際SCI核心期刊收錄論文70篇。 國際期刊European Journal Agronomy 和 Regional environmental change、《中國農業氣象》等國內外學術期刊編委。
研究領域和研究方向
主要研究領域為生態系統生態學、全球變化生態學和農林氣象學。長期致力於農業系統對全球變化的回響和適應研究。圍繞領域前沿科學和國家重大需求問題，從農業系統對過去氣候變化的回響和適應機理、農業系統模型創建和未來氣候變化影響預估和適應對策，到農業水土資源變化及糧食安全綜合集成研究。
近期科研進展
近年來，收集整理多源資料，建立了農業多要素多尺度長期歷史資料庫，發展了系列先進的理論方法和模型系統，在我國農業耕作系統、農業水資源和農業生產對季節氣候變率和長期氣候變化回響的事實、機制、規律及時空分異規律等方面有多項創新成果。針對困擾當前氣候變化影響預測研究中的不確定性問題，發展了MCWLA系列作物模型和超集合機率預測的理論方法，研發了新一代氣候變化影響評價工具“區域農業對氣候變化回響和適應的超集合預測系統”，在大尺度作物模型的發展和氣候變化影響評價研究的不確定問題上取得重要突破。系統開展全球變化、農業水土資源變化和糧食安全綜合集成研究。目前已在國內外核心期刊發表論文100餘篇，其中SCI核心期刊論文70篇。研究成果被《科學》雜誌新聞焦點報導，被歐洲農學學會作為亮點報導，被IPCC評價報告多次引用和高度評價。
代表論著
1. Tao et al., 2014. Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones ofChina, 1981-2009. DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.01.013
2. Bassu S., et al., 2014. How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors? Global change Bio. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12520
3. Xiao D, Tao F*, 2014. Contributions of cultivars, management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades. Eur. J. Agron. 52, 112-122
4. Tao, F., Zhang,Z., Shi,W. Liu,Y. Xiao,D., Zhang,S., Zhu,Z., Wang, M.,Liu F. Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981-2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite. Global Change Biology. 2013, 19, 3200–3209.
5. Asseng, S. et al., 2013. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Climate change. 3, 827–832
2. Bassu S., et al., 2014. How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors? Global change Bio. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12520
3. Xiao D, Tao F*, 2014. Contributions of cultivars, management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades. Eur. J. Agron. 52, 112-122
4. Tao, F., Zhang,Z., Shi,W. Liu,Y. Xiao,D., Zhang,S., Zhu,Z., Wang, M.,Liu F. Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981-2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite. Global Change Biology. 2013, 19, 3200–3209.
5. Asseng, S. et al., 2013. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Climate change. 3, 827–832
6. Zhang S., Tao F.* 2013. Modeling the response of rice phenology to climate change and variability in different climatic zones: Comparisons of five models. Eur. J. Agron. 45, 167–176
7. Tao, F., Zhang, S，Zhang Z. 2013. Changes in rice disasters across China in recent decades and the meteorological and agronomic causes. Regional Environmental Change, 13, 743–759.
8. Moiwo JP, Tao F.*, Lu Wenxi. 2013. Analysis of satellite-based and in situ hydro-climatic data depicts water storage depletion in North China Region. Hydrological Processes, 27, 1011-1020.
9. Tao F., Z Zhang. 2013. Climate Change, High Temperature Stress, Rice Productivity and Water Use in Eastern China: A New Super-ensemble-based Probabilistic Projection. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2013, 52, 531–551.
10. Xiao D, Tao F.*, Liu Y, Shi W, et al., 2013. Observed changes in winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain for 1981-2009. International Journal of Biometeorology.57, 275-285.
11. Tao F., Z Zhang. 2013. Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: A new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170，146-166.
12. Zhang S, Tao F.*. 2013. Modeling the response of rice phenology to climate change and variability in different climatic zones: Comparisons of five models. European Journal of Agronomy, 45, 167-176.
13. Tao F., Zhang S, Zhang Z. 2012. Spatiotemporal changes of wheat phenology inChinaunder the effects of temperature, day length and cultivar thermal characteristics. European Journal of Agronomy, 43, 201-212.
14. Tao, F., Zhang, Z., Zhang, S., Zhu, Z., & Shi, W. 2012. Response of crop yields to climate trends since 1980 inChina. Climate Research, 54, 233-247.
15. Moiwo, J.P., Tao, F*., Liu. W. 2011. Estimating soil moisture storage change using quasi-terrestrial water balance method. Agricultural Water Management, 102, 25–34.
16. Tao F, Z. Zhang. 2011. Dynamic Response of Terrestrial Hydrological Cycle and Plant Water Stress to Climate Change inChina. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12, 371-393, doi: 10.1175/2010JHM1314.1
17. Tao, F, Z. Zhang. 2011. Impacts of climate change as a function of global mean temperature: maize productivity and water use inChina. Climatic Change, 105,409-432, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9883-9. Online First™
18. Tao F, Z. Zhang, M. Yokozawa. 2011. Dangerous levels of climate change for agricultural production inChina. Regional Environmental Change 11: S41–S48.
19. Tao F, Z. Zhang. 2010. Dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystems structure and function to climate change inChina. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115: G03003, doi:10.1029/2009JG001062.
20. Tao F, Z. Zhang. 2010. Adaptation of maize production to climate change in North China Plain: Quantify the relative contributions of adaptation options. European Journal of Agronomy, 33, 103-116.
21. Tao, F, Z. Zhang, J. Liu. 2009. Modeling the Impacts of Weather and Climate Variability on Crop Productivity over a Large Area: A New Super-ensemble-based Probabilistic Projection. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 1266–127.
22. Tao, F, M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang. 2009. Modeling the Impacts of Weather and Climate Variability on Crop Productivity over a Large Area: A New Process-based Model Development, Optimization, and Uncertainties Analysis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 831–850.
23. Tao, F, M. Yokozawa, J. Liu, Z. Zhang. 2009. Climate change, land use change, andChina’s food security in the twenty-first century: an integrated perspective. Climatic Change, 93, 433–445.
24. Tao, F, Y. Hayashi, M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang, T. Sakamoto. 2008. Global Warming, Rice Production and Water Use inChina: Developing a Probabilistic Assessment. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 148, 94–110.
25. Tao, F, M. Yokozawa, J. Liu, Z. Zhang. 2008. Climate-crop yield relationships at province scale inChinaand the impacts of recent climate trend. Climate Research, 38, 83–94.
7. Tao, F., Zhang, S，Zhang Z. 2013. Changes in rice disasters across China in recent decades and the meteorological and agronomic causes. Regional Environmental Change, 13, 743–759.
8. Moiwo JP, Tao F.*, Lu Wenxi. 2013. Analysis of satellite-based and in situ hydro-climatic data depicts water storage depletion in North China Region. Hydrological Processes, 27, 1011-1020.
9. Tao F., Z Zhang. 2013. Climate Change, High Temperature Stress, Rice Productivity and Water Use in Eastern China: A New Super-ensemble-based Probabilistic Projection. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2013, 52, 531–551.
10. Xiao D, Tao F.*, Liu Y, Shi W, et al., 2013. Observed changes in winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain for 1981-2009. International Journal of Biometeorology.57, 275-285.
11. Tao F., Z Zhang. 2013. Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: A new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170，146-166.
12. Zhang S, Tao F.*. 2013. Modeling the response of rice phenology to climate change and variability in different climatic zones: Comparisons of five models. European Journal of Agronomy, 45, 167-176.
13. Tao F., Zhang S, Zhang Z. 2012. Spatiotemporal changes of wheat phenology inChinaunder the effects of temperature, day length and cultivar thermal characteristics. European Journal of Agronomy, 43, 201-212.
14. Tao, F., Zhang, Z., Zhang, S., Zhu, Z., & Shi, W. 2012. Response of crop yields to climate trends since 1980 inChina. Climate Research, 54, 233-247.
15. Moiwo, J.P., Tao, F*., Liu. W. 2011. Estimating soil moisture storage change using quasi-terrestrial water balance method. Agricultural Water Management, 102, 25–34.
16. Tao F, Z. Zhang. 2011. Dynamic Response of Terrestrial Hydrological Cycle and Plant Water Stress to Climate Change inChina. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12, 371-393, doi: 10.1175/2010JHM1314.1
17. Tao, F, Z. Zhang. 2011. Impacts of climate change as a function of global mean temperature: maize productivity and water use inChina. Climatic Change, 105,409-432, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9883-9. Online First™
18. Tao F, Z. Zhang, M. Yokozawa. 2011. Dangerous levels of climate change for agricultural production inChina. Regional Environmental Change 11: S41–S48.
19. Tao F, Z. Zhang. 2010. Dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystems structure and function to climate change inChina. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115: G03003, doi:10.1029/2009JG001062.
20. Tao F, Z. Zhang. 2010. Adaptation of maize production to climate change in North China Plain: Quantify the relative contributions of adaptation options. European Journal of Agronomy, 33, 103-116.
21. Tao, F, Z. Zhang, J. Liu. 2009. Modeling the Impacts of Weather and Climate Variability on Crop Productivity over a Large Area: A New Super-ensemble-based Probabilistic Projection. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 1266–127.
22. Tao, F, M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang. 2009. Modeling the Impacts of Weather and Climate Variability on Crop Productivity over a Large Area: A New Process-based Model Development, Optimization, and Uncertainties Analysis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 831–850.
23. Tao, F, M. Yokozawa, J. Liu, Z. Zhang. 2009. Climate change, land use change, andChina’s food security in the twenty-first century: an integrated perspective. Climatic Change, 93, 433–445.
24. Tao, F, Y. Hayashi, M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang, T. Sakamoto. 2008. Global Warming, Rice Production and Water Use inChina: Developing a Probabilistic Assessment. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 148, 94–110.
25. Tao, F, M. Yokozawa, J. Liu, Z. Zhang. 2008. Climate-crop yield relationships at province scale inChinaand the impacts of recent climate trend. Climate Research, 38, 83–94.
